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GSK Beats on Q1 Earnings, Lags Sales, Reaffirms 2023 Outlook

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GSK plc (GSK - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of 90 cents per American depositary share (“ADS”), beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of 85 cents and 82 cents, respectively. Adjusted earnings rose 15% year over year on a reported basis and 7% at a constant exchange rate (CER).

Quarterly revenues declined 3% on a reported basis and 8% at CER to $8.48 billion (£6.95 billion), missing both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates of $8.55 billion. The downside can be attributed to the declining sales of its COVID-19 antibody drug, Xevudy and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

In the year so far, GSK’s shares have gained 5.0% against the industry’s 4.1% fall.

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GSK reports financial figures under three segments — Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines.

Segment Discussion

Sales of the Specialty Medicines segment fell 33% at CER, due to the declining sales of Xevudy. Revenues from the Specialty Medicines segment were up 13% at CER, excluding Xevudy sales. Sales growth of HIV, oncology and respiratory drugs was also strong.

Xevudy generated sales of £31 million in the first quarter, compared with £125 million in fourth-quarter 2022. The drug’s sales were generated from International markets. GSK markets Xevudy in collaboration with Vir Biotechnology (VIR - Free Report) .

Last year, the FDA withdrew the emergency use authorization (EUA) granted to GSK/Vir Biotechnology’s Xevudy. The withdrawal decision for the Vir Biotechnology-partnered antibody therapy was based on data that showed that it was unlikely for the Xevudy dose to be effective against the Omicron variant.

HIV sales increased 15% at CER, driven by sales growth of new HIV drugs — Juluca, Dovato, Cabenuva, Rukobia and Apretude. Notably, GSK markets Juluca in collaboration with J&J (JNJ - Free Report) .

GSK generates the majority of its HIV sales from its dolutegravir franchise, comprising three-drug regimens — Triumeq and Tivicay — and two-drug regimens — Dovato and J&J-partnered Juluca. The launch of the two-drug regimens has been eroding sales and market share of the three-drug regimens following their launch. During the first quarter, GSK and J&J’s Juluca and Dovato generated over 37% of total HIV sales.

Sales of the dolutegravir franchise were up 8% at CER in the U.S. market and 7% in Europe. In International markets, sales were up 7% at CER.

Sales of Triumeq declined 11% at CER, while Tivicay sales were up 3%.

Sales of the immuno-inflammation drug, Benlysta, were up 9% in the quarter, reflecting growth across all regions.

Sales of the respiratory drug, Nucala, were up 11% at CER during the quarter, driven by growth in ex-U.S. markets.

Oncology sales were up 2% year over year, driven by Zejula. Sales of Zejula rose 10% in the quarter. The recently-launched Jemperli added £11 million to the top line in the first quarter. Blenrep sales declined 56% during the quarter since the drug was withdrawn from the U.S. market last November.

Sales of General Medicines were up 9% at CER during the quarter. Loss of sales from established drugs due to generic competition was more than offset by the strong sales growth of respiratory drugs Trelegy Ellipta and Flixotide/Flovent and the post-pandemic recovery of Augmentin sales. A few established drugs like Avamys and Anoro Ellipta also demonstrated sales growth.

Trelegy Ellipta sales surged 28% year over year, owing to strong growth in all regions. Sales of Anoro Ellipta were up 16% at CER during the first quarter. Key established drug Advair/Seretide sales rose 8% year over year. Sales on Revlar/Breo Ellipta were down 5% at CER year over year.

Vaccine Sales Rise

GSK’s first-quarter vaccine sales increased 15% at CER, driven by the recovery in Shingrix sales. GSK also recorded sales of £101 million from COVID-19 booster vaccine co-developed in partnership with Sanofi, all of which were generated from Europe.

Shingrix sales rose 11% at CER during the quarter due to strong demand in Europe and International markets.

In Meningitis vaccines, Bexsero sales were up 26%, while sales of Menveo rose 31%. Sales of the influenza vaccine, Fluarix, were down 28% at CER. Sales of Established vaccines were up 4% year over year.

Operating Expenses

Adjusted selling, general and administration (SG&A) costs increased 10% year over year at CER to £2.07 billion. The upside in SG&A costs was due to the increase in legal provisions related to Zejula royalty dispute and launch of products in the Specialty Medicines and Vaccines segments.

Earlier this month, GSK announced that it had lost a patent litigation case pertaining to Zejula against AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) . As a result, GSK is now liable to pay a portion of Zejula sales as royalty to AstraZeneca. The amount payable to AstraZeneca will be determined in a separate phase of the court proceedings. Management is currently considering appealing to the case.

Research and development (R&D) expenses rose 6% year over year at CER to £1.22 billion due to continued investment by management for pipeline advancement and the recently acquired Affinivax.

Reaffirms 2023 Guidance

GSK reaffirmed its guidance for 2023. The company expects sales to increase 6% to 8% in 2023.

Management expects sales of specialty medicines to increase mid to high single-digit percentage at CER in 2023, while vaccine sales are expected to grow in the mid-teens percentage at CER. Management expects the General Medicines segment’s turnover to be broadly flat or fall slightly due to increased generic erosion of respiratory drugs.

The company expects adjusted operating profit growth to increase between 10% to 12% at CER. GSK also provided guidance for its adjusted EPS, which is anticipated to grow in the range of 12% and 15%.

The above guidance excludes any revenues from its COVID-related products. GSK does not expect significant COVID-19 related sales in 2023. If management were to add COVID sales, it expects a reduction of approximately 9% in turnover growth and a decline in adjusted operating profit growth by 5% to 6%.

Based on first-quarter 2023 performance, GSK now expects turnover growth rate in first-half 2023 to be broadly similar to the second-half. However, adjusted operating profit growth in second-half 2023 of the year is expected to be more than the first half.

 

Zacks Rank

GSK currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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